Jason Fekete, Postmedia news April 20, 2012
Alberta Election, with Campaign Nearing End, Will Have National Implications
OTTAWA — The Alberta provincial election campaign heads into its final sprint this weekend, leading up to Monday’s vote, in a race that is as exciting as it is important for the rest of the country.
Danielle Smith’s upstart Wildrose party is ahead in the polls and appears on the verge of defeating Alison Redford’s ruling Progressive Conservatives and toppling the 41-year Tory dynasty.
At stake are the keys to the premier’s office and control over one of the richest jurisdictions in North America, as two conservative parties battle it out in what’s a messy political civil war.
Yet, all Canadians arguably have an enormous amount riding on the results of the election — both politically and economically.
“It matters (to Canadians), given that the population centre and the economic centre of gravity is starting to move West,” said Duane Bratt, political scientist at Mount Royal University in Calgary.
“The premier of Alberta should be playing a larger role on the national stage.”
Huge resource, huge target:
Indeed, resource-rich Alberta has become an economic juggernaut in Confederation.
The northern Alberta oilsands contribute tens of thousands of direct and indirect jobs across the country and billions of dollars to the national economy.
Moreover, the federal Conservative government’s environmental policies and regulatory reforms for oil and gas projects are influenced by Alberta’s petroleum-powered economy.
But the province also remains a lightning rod within Canada — and around the world — for the environmental footprint of carbon-intensive oilsands developments on land, air and water.
Also, Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty has complained the high “petro-dollar” is hobbling Central Canada’s manufacturing sector.
The oilsands are the third-largest proven oil reserves in the world next to Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, but also the fastest-growing source of greenhouse gas emissions in Canada.
Certainly, Wild Rose Country remains a polarizing province. Alberta’s role in Confederation and how Canadians view the province could be heavily shaped by the results of Monday’s vote.
“Twenty years ago, people wouldn’t have cared because Alberta was not the economic powerhouse that it now is,” said David Taras, a political analyst at Mount Royal University.
“It’s very hard to ignore (Alberta’s economic clout). It may not be the elephant in the room, but it certainly is in the room and getting bigger all the time.”
The incumbent:
She proudly trumpets her progressive values, has long roots in the provincial PC party, as well as the federal Conservatives dating back to Joe Clark’s time in the Prime Minister’s Office.
But Redford has been fighting the provincial PCs’ record, as well as recent political headaches, including revelations that members on a Tory-dominated legislature committee were paid $1,000 a month despite the fact they had not met since 2008.
Redford has since ordered all PC members on the committee to return every penny they were paid for serving on the panel, but not before political damage was done.
Many observers believe the PCs will need to snare progressive voters from the opposition Liberals and NDP, as well as hold on to their bases in Calgary and Edmonton, if they’re to retain power.
The No. 1 contender:
Smith, 41, is a former small business advocate, journalist and past PC member who captured the leadership in the fall of 2009 of what was then the newly formed Wildrose Alliance party.
Now known simply as Wildrose, the right-of-centre party — with the charismatic Smith at the helm — has attracted disillusioned Progressive Conservatives and poses the most serious threat to the Tories in their 41 years of consecutive majority rule.
Smith is a libertarian and landowners’ rights advocate who’s targeting true-blue conservative voters and appears to have strong support across the province, especially in rural Alberta.
It’s believed a majority of Alberta’s 26 federal Conservative MPs support Wildrose, an organization with many supporters and organizers, whose political roots trace back to the former Reform party.
Results of several polls have Wildrose leading the PCs and on pace to form a majority government on Monday, despite only holding four of 83 seats in the Conservative-dominated legislature heading into the election.
The other main challengers:
The Alberta Liberals, the official Opposition heading into the election, are led by Raj Sherman, a 45-year-old emergency room physician who was punted from the PC caucus in late 2010 for criticizing the government’s handling of the health-care file.
NDP leader Brian Mason, 58, is a former bus driver and Edmonton city councillor who has been at the helm of his party since 2004. The NDP held only two seats in the provincial legislature heading into the election.
Poll results suggest the Liberals and NDP are well back of the Wildrose and Progressive Conservative parties and may only win a handful of seats each.
Campaign highlights and lowlights:
The 28-day race started inauspiciously for Smith, after the Wildrose unveiled a campaign “bust bus” covered in a decal with the party logo and a picture of Smith’s head and neckline right above the rear wheels. The party quickly changed the decal.
While Wildrose is ahead in the polls, the party’s momentum has stalled somewhat in the last week following controversial remarks from some of its candidates.
An Edmonton Wildrose candidate sparked backlash for a blog he wrote last year that warned homosexuals will suffer for eternity in a “lake of fire.” Also, a Calgary Wildrose hopeful said during a radio interview he thinks he has an electoral advantage because he is “Caucasian.” He later apologized, saying the comment didn’t reflect his true feelings.
Smith is also facing criticism for Wildrose’s promise to explore what opponents say are insular “firewall” policies, such as a provincial police force, an aggressive stance on equalization and an Alberta Pension Plan to replace the Canada Pension Plan.
However, Smith and her party received a boost Thursday when Reform party founder Preston Manning, the patriarch of the modern-day federal Conservatives, appeared to endorse the Wildrose in an op-ed article he penned.
Redford and the Conservatives, meanwhile, have been fighting public outrage over the committee pay scandal, and trying to shore up their health-care credentials following continued accusations that physicians have been intimidated and bullied by the PC government.
The Tory leader also was thrown on the defensive for a few days after a PC staffer resigned from her job in the premier’s Calgary office after questioning on Twitter why Smith doesn’t have children. Smith later explained she and her husband wanted to have children but could not.
Redford, however, got her own boost via an influential endorsement from former Alberta PC premier Peter Lougheed, a political god in the province, who did battle with the federal Liberal governments in the 1970s and 80s.
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